Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 17.473049 20.336941 23.470561 27.146815 31.334161 35.947594 41.407682
2024-11-03 13.522189 17.635354 22.600296 28.998788 36.986341 46.585543 58.947519
2024-11-10 11.416303 16.272895 22.597175 31.349839 43.048557 58.031557 78.538654
2024-11-17 9.323741 14.352961 21.342132 31.615998 46.152222 65.769517 93.981996
2024-11-24 7.610847 12.558954 19.847714 31.148672 47.953306 71.680584 107.279514
2024-12-01 6.203895 10.923036 18.259652 30.203981 48.783656 76.102531 118.662418
2024-12-08 5.290302 9.881643 17.376506 30.124019 50.761412 82.206893 132.831360
2024-12-15 4.608489 9.096640 16.762245 30.334947 53.122769 88.981440 148.438120
2024-12-22 3.728343 7.801470 15.096659 28.565089 52.042767 90.225063 155.461229
2024-12-29 3.403916 7.476027 15.060729 29.550765 55.590250 99.078460 175.185576
2025-01-05 3.192264 7.331511 15.323272 31.073872 60.169087 109.934719 198.918815
2025-01-12 2.762353 6.668150 14.515478 30.520519 60.989211 114.473609 212.354188
2025-01-19 2.269670 5.808433 13.255815 29.058496 60.198347 116.500101 222.283814
2025-01-26 2.153073 5.772747 13.675375 30.973863 65.991513 130.771504 254.980300
2025-02-02 2.088619 5.847366 14.336545 33.456586 73.123066 148.042895 294.350144
2025-02-09 1.859494 5.475167 13.968469 33.736441 75.914871 157.484734 320.121208
2025-02-16 1.610176 4.997583 13.285868 33.240468 77.058052 163.860760 340.609473
2025-02-23 1.367974 4.483382 12.431765 32.238611 77.013675 167.883970 356.850906
2025-03-02 1.209801 4.167430 12.005529 32.153791 78.901644 175.842028 381.231733
2025-03-09 1.086655 3.925918 11.727118 32.377477 81.475228 185.358229 409.314558
2025-03-16 0.890091 3.410252 10.647586 30.500255 79.113852 184.487700 416.425485
2025-03-23 0.833437 3.330383 10.730107 31.545805 83.584286 198.302887 454.487512
2025-03-30 0.801038 3.325193 11.020390 33.161036 89.543399 215.716391 501.111838